We waited all season for an Eastern Conference finals between the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers. Yet when the time came for the two talented teams to finally meet in late May, only Miami showed up.Poof. Roy Hibbert went missing once again in Game 4, not scoring a single point and grabbing just five rebounds in 22 minutes. Indiana was outscored by 23 points when Hibbert was on the floor, and his on-court performance has been a very reliable barometer of how well the Pacers fare.
| Hibbert | Plus/Minus | Result |
| Game 1 ATL | -11 | L 8 |
| Game 2 ATL | 12 | W 16 |
| Game 3 ATL | -8 | L 13 |
| Game 4 ATL | -2 | W 3 |
| Game 5 ATL | -7 | L 10 |
| Game 6 ATL | -12 | W 7 |
| Game 7 ATL | 16 | W 12 |
| Game 1 WSH | -17 | L 6 |
| Game 2 WSH | 16 | W 4 |
| Game 3 WSH | 15 | W 22 |
| Game 4 WSH | 16 | W 3 |
| Game 5 WSH | -27 | L 23 |
| Game 6 WSH | 10 | W 13 |
| Game 1 MIA | 19 | W 11 |
| Game 2 MIA | 3 | L 4 |
| Game 3 MIA | -21 | L 12 |
| Game 4 MIA | -23 | L 12 |
Hibbert’s team has been outscored when he was on the floor in nine of Indiana’s 17 playoff games. The Pacers are 7-1 when Hibbert is on the positive side of the plus/minus and 2-7 when he’s on the negative side. It’s impossible to point to just one thing when assessing a team’s losses, but Hibbert’s play has to be a huge part of the discussion.
Lance Stephenson’s scoring has also gone missing over the last two games. After scoring 25 points in Game 2, he had a combined 19 points in the losses in Games 3 and 4. Indiana needs Hibbert and Stephenson to be more productive in order to have a chance, especially when Miami’s LeBron James-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh trio is playing as well as it has been in quite some time.
Points Off Turnovers
To state the obvious, giving a team like the Heat easy baskets off turnovers is a really good way to lose a series. Miami outscored Indiana 20-6 off turnovers in Game 4, with the 14-point margin coming very close to Monday’s 12-point outcome. Miami scored 26 points off 19 Indiana turnovers in Game 3, and won the Game 2 turnover margin (and the game) by four points.
Second-Half Struggles
It’s no secret that the best teams know how to make halftime adjustments and close out games. Indiana has done neither of those things in the last two games. Take a look at the scoring margins per quarter and the patterns they show:
| Quarter Margins | 1st Quarter | 2nd Quarter | 3rd Quarter | 4th Quarter |
| Game 1 | Indiana +6 | Indiana + 4 | Indiana +3 | Miami +2 |
| Game 2 | Indiana +1 | Miami +5 | Indiana +5 | Miami +5 |
| Game 3 | Indiana +7 | Miami +3 | Miami +11 | Miami +5 |
| Game 4 | Miami +8 | Indiana +3 | Miami +11 | Indiana +4 |
| Totals | Indiana +6 | Miami +1 | Miami +14 | Miami +8 |
The Pacers have generally fared well in the first quarter and did well in the third quarter over the first two games, but Miami has totally dominated the third quarters of Games 3 and 4 and flipped the series in its favor.
Whether it’s Heat players stepping up in the second half or Erik Spoelstra making better locker room adjustments than his Indiana counterpart, Miami has imposed its will on the Pacers in the third quarters and made it difficult for its opponent to mount a comeback.
Until Indiana can maintain its strong starts into the second half, reaching the NBA Finals will be out of the question.
Bench Beatdown
Many, including this columnist, thought that Indiana had solved its depth issues in the offseason by acquiring quality reserves such as Luis Scola, C.J. Watson and Chris Copeland. Add Evan Turner to the mix and, wow, that’s a really good bench that could defend and score.
But Indiana’s second unit has been bludgeoned by Miami’s bench players in this series and it’s costing the Pacers dearly.
Miami’s bench has outscored Indiana by 33 points thus far, including an eight-point margin in Game 3 and a three-point margin in Game 4, which was only close because the game was out of reach in the fourth quarter.
Whether the Heat just has more talent on the bench or Vogel isn’t optimally utilizing the Pacers’ reserves, the one advantage we thought Indiana had going into this season – like the rest of the team – has not materialized when it matters the most.
Shlomo Sprung is a national columnist for SheridanHoops who loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You should follow him on Twitter.